In this episode I want to go back and look at my 2021 Way Too Early ACC Lacrosse Conference Prediction and see how “smart” or how “dumb” I really am. SPOILER ALERT, this one didn’t go all that well for me…
PREDICTION:
The ACC would be the best conference in lacrosse and that it wouldn’t be close.
REALITY:
I’m an idiot. The B1G ended up being the best conference overall if only because Maryland lives there. Maryland completed the undefeated season, Rutgers had a great year and even 10-6 Ohio State knocked off both ACC teams they faced.
B1G was 7-2 against the ACC.
Anchored by Maryland going 4-0. The rest of the B1G was 3-2 against ACC foes. Ohio State picked up 2 ACC wins over UNC and Notre Dame and Hopkins beat Syracuse at home.
IVY was 2-2 against the ACC.
B1G was 8-7 against the IVY
- Anchored by Maryland going 3-0 and both Rutgers and Ohio State splitting 2-2.
- Rutgers bounced 2 Ivy teams in the tournament. (Harvard & Penn, before losing to Cornell)
- Maryland bounced 2 Ivy teams in the tournament (Princeton & Cornell)
- Princeton bounced a fellow Ivy team from the tournament.
- Virginia bounced the other Ivy team.
Final 4
- B1G & IVY Final 4 commenced.
- Cornell beat Rutgers
- Maryland bounced Princeton
- Maryland beat Cornell for the title.
So my prediction for the best conference in lacrosse was the ACC and the reality the B1G won out as their “quality was better than the Ivy’s quality” despite the Ivy having more depth overall.
But even behind the B1G and the Ivy, the ACC wasn’t a clear cut 3rd. The Big East could easily claim the 3rd spot due to Georgetown’s overall strength. The Patriot could be in the mix and I’m sure if I did the math I could come up with an answer, BUT ALL THAT MATTERS IS I WAS WRONG.
I was an ACC Maxi, and shouldn’t have been. I don’t think I was insane for picking the ACC. On paper it looked like I could be right. But UVA under-performed as did every other team in the ACC in terms of their regular season non-conference schedules, and that was the end of me looking smart.
PREDICTION:
4 ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament.
REALITY:
1 ACC team made the NCAA tournament, Virginia. Duke was close as was Notre Dame, but their bad losses ended up being greater than their best wins, largely because of how many non-conference losses the other ACC teams piled up and a team like Notre Dame that was forced to play Syracuse twice had their SOS dragged into the dirt.
PREDICTION:
I picked (5) UNC, (4) Syracuse, (3) Duke, (2) Notre Dame, (1) Virginia
REALITY:
Not too bad here. The true order was UVA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina and then Syracuse. My bias probably got in the way from me nailing this one. And if you consider how bad Syracuse was overall, they really dragged the conference down.
- Syracuse’s upset of Duke was probably what kept Duke out of the tournament as losing to a 4-10 team doesn’t look good on your resume. They also lost to 8-8 Loyola. So Duke may not have gotten in anyway. But if you want to guarantee missing the tournament, losing to a 4-10 team will help that cause.
- Notre Dame was forced to play Syracuse twice, normally a boost to your SOS. But this year, despite beating Cuse up both times, the committee was forced to yawn and Notre Dame was one of the first two or three teams out. Granted, that loss to Ohio State didn’t help, but replace Cuse with a team like Richmond and get a win? They could have gotten in.
Listen to the audio version…
