Lacrosse season is almost upon us. This upcoming Saturday we will have a near full slate of games to watch and entertain us. My original plan was to preview those games today, but I’m going to do that Wednesday, and today I’m going to dive into more of a “full season preview” and make some predictions so I can look back and question my intelligence.
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PICKS…
ACC
I think Virginia takes the ACC. Most would agree that at the very least they are an overwhelming favorite. Duke and Notre Dame aren’t too far behind them and Syracuse and UNC bring up the rear.
The real question here is, how will Syracuse and North Carolina fare? Both teams play enough games that so long as they handle their “non conference business”, they both have a very good shot at finishing above .500. I like Cuse a little bit more than Carolina and think that Carolina will be down while Cuse will be up.
Predicted Champ: Virginia, not that it helps them other than they get some quality wins. No AQ out of the ACC. They need a 6th team badly.
AMERICA EAST
The America East is a tough one to call. Vermont will most likely not be “quite as good as a season ago”, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win the America East tournament again. Vermont beat UMBC 13-11 a season ago in the AE finals. Thomas McConvey scored 5 goals off 8 shots in that game and he’ll be running around for Virginia this year.
I’m going with Vermont even though I don’t think they’ll be as solid offensively as they were a year ago. They lose McConvey and McCormack, but they get back David Closterman and Brock Haley. Both guys are legit 50/50 threats. Closterman was good for 29 goals and 36 assists and Haley went for 26 goals and 25 helpers.
I almost went with UMBC. In fact, I had to rewrite this prediction because I initially did go with UMBC, but after considering the fact that Vermont beat them twice a year ago, the first contest a 12-3 rout, the second matchup a two-goal win for Vermont in the conference tournament finals, I went with Vermont.
Even with their offensive losses, Vermont still has Tommy Burke at the face-off dot (for one more season before he plays the 2024 season at Ohio State).
Both teams lost some guys on defense and at midfield and both teams lose their starting goalie. So I think all that happened is Vermont and UMBC may be a bit more closely matched, and Albany is more than likely sitting right behind them, greedily breathing down their necks waiting for either to slip up. I also won’t sleep on Stony Brook.
Predicted Champ: Vermont, but only by a small margin. I think that UMBC and Albany will threaten to bump them
ASUN
This one is easy. Jacksonville. Jax will be even more powerful on offense than they were a season ago. Max Waldbaum is back (48g, 24a) as is Jacob Greiner (51g, 18a). But the addition of Dylan Watson (Georgetown transfer) gives this already loaded offense even more firepower. Watson discord 51 goals a season ago (to go with 18 assists).
They have quite a few holes to fill on defense. They lost a couple of poles and defensive midfielders, but they do bring back Tucker Garrity to anchor the rope unit (he had 18 caused turnovers a year ago) and Luke Millican is back in cage (he had a .582 save percentage in 2022).
Jacksonville went undefeated in the SoCon last year beating Richmond and High Point. This season their main competition will be teams like Robert Morris and Utah. I think Jax can handle that heat. Utah and Robert Morris were both 10-win teams last year. They split games against each other as well. So I don’t think they are far behind Jacksonville. But Jacksonville will “bring the heat” offensively and I’m not sure anyone in the ASUN is going to be able to slow their roll.
Predicted Champ: Jacksonville, but I think Utah could surprise. The Utes were 5-0 in the Ason last year but lost to Robert Morris in the conference tournament. I think this year the Utes end up losing to Jacksonville.
ATLANTIC 10
I like Richmond and Saint Joseph’s out of the Atlantic 10 and I’m thinking High Point could do some damage as well.
This one is really, really tough to call, because it’s merging teams that played in separate conferences a year ago.
Saint Joseph’s brings back one of the best attack groups in the country. High Point impressed against some pretty tough competition in the fall. Richmond was the only team in the Atlantic 10 that I gave a preseason poll vote to.
This one for me is a toss up and I’m going to throw a dart and predict that Saint Joseph’s is going to win the conference tournament. That sounds odd because I ranked Richmond ahead of Saint Joe’s in my preseason poll leaving Hawks as one of my “first two teams out”.
So let’s call this one of those scenarios where I prove “I have no idea” and I’m hedging my bets. I gave Richmond props in the preseason poll. I’m predicting Saint Joseph’s to win the conference tournament, and I think High Point will also be a pain in both of their asses.
Predicted Champ: Saint Joseph’s, with Richmond and High Point fighting right behind them.
BIG EAST
Georgetown. NEXT. This one won’t be close . The Hoya’s went 5-0 last year and won the tournament. They’ll go 5-0 again this season and will once again win the tournament. What the Hoya’s did in the transfer portal is incredible. Their offense will be deadly. Their defense is anchored by the reigning “defensive player of the year”, Will Bowen, and despite losing an All-American goalie to graduation, they snagged up a transfer that could save their buts between the pipes as well.
Predicted Champ: Georgetown and that’s all I have to say about that.
BIG TEN
OK, this is where I’m going to get straight up booed off stage. I think the Big Ten has a legit chance to have a team that is not Maryland win the conference tournament this season. I know it sounds crazy, but here me out.
Maryland has won four Big Ten tournament championships since the conference formed in 2015. Hopkins won the first and Maryland took the title in 2016 and 2017. Hop took 2018 and Penn State took 2019. Covid screwed up 2020 and Maryland has won the last two. I feel like 2023 is going to be different, and thus far Maryland hasn’t won more than two in a row.
The years Maryland won the tournament were the years “they had the best offensive player on the field”. In 2022 their entire offense was “the best player on the field” and Wisnauskas won a Tewaaraton as their leader. In 2021 it was Jared Bernhardt. In 2016 and 2017 it was Matt Rambo.
In 2023, Maryland will be able to boast the best defender, goalie and faceoff guy on the field. But for the first time in a few years, guys like Jack Meyers at Ohio State and Ross Scott at Rutgers could very easily be considered the “best offensive players on the field” when they play the Terps. That’s going to create a totally different dynamic once B1G conference play kicks off and it’s going to be exciting to watch.
Predicted Champ: Ohio State! I’m not saying they are even going to have the best regular season. Hell, Rutgers and Maryland could both beat the Buckeyes in the regular season for all I care. What I’m saying is Jack Myers and crew return the bulk of their contributors from a year ago and added some really nice transfers to improve their depth. Richile LaCalandra was an excellent get as was Marcus Hudgins. Kyle Lewis, the Lynchburg transfer will also factor. I think no matter what happens in the regular season, Ohio State is going to be clicking with a bunch of VETERANS ready to win their first Big Ten championship.
CAA
Another easy one here. Delaware is going to win the conference tournament again in 2023 after capturing their first CAA tournament title since 2011 last year. They’ve won four overall.
They return one of the best group of attackmen in the country in JP Ward, Mike Robinson and Tye Kurtz. They scored 72, 68 and 67 points respectively a season ago. The Blue Hens were able to upset Georgetown in the first round of the NCAA tournament after winning their “play in” game and will be coming into 2023 with quite a bit of swag.
Important to note, the CAA is a very tight race. Delaware, UMass and Towson were all 3-2 and Fairfield, Drexel and Hofstra were all 2-3. So this conference beat the hell out of itself last year.
The main reason I say “it’s easy” despite the fact that the race was so tight last year with Hofstra and UMass both beating Delaware is because by season’s end Delaware was playing better than everyone else by a margin.
After losing to both UMass and Hofstra in back to back games (their 3rd loss in three games), the Blue Hens won out with one-goal wins over Towson and Drexel and a two-goal win over Fairfield to end the regular season.
Then things got cool. They thumped Drexel 19-6 in the CAA semifinals and beat Towson 11-6 in the finals. They took out Robert Morris in the NCAA tournament play in game and then shocked everyone dropping #2 Georgetown by a goal in the first round. A game that saw the Blue Hens jump out to an early lead and then come back from a few goals down late in the game to secure the W. The lost to Cornell in the quarterfinals, but put up a good fight and stayed within two goals.
Predicted Champ: Delaware, because I think the fact this team brings back the bulk of their talent from a year ago on both offense and defense is going to make it very tough for teams to unseat them as the reigning CAA tournament champs.
IVY LEAGUE
The Ivy is another really hard read. I’m leaning Cornell right out of the gate, but Yale, Penn and Princeton are all in a really tight group. I’m not even willing to say Cornell is the best team in the Ivy. They just happened to be the Ivy League team that played the best through the NCAA tournament.
Cornell, Yale and Brown all finished 4-2 in Ivy League play by the end of the regular season. Penn, Princeton and Harvard were all 3-3. Every team in the Ivy except Dartmouth finished at least 3 games above .500. Harvard was 8-5 and every other team had 10+ wins with either 5 or 6 losses. The Ivy was TOUGH.
So as with my Big Ten and Atlantic 10 predictions, I’m just kind of “winging it here”. It comes down to “who do I think will be playing better lacrosse by the season’s end”?
Predicted Champ: Yale. They were insanely young a year ago, but Leo Johnson and Chris Lyons are both killers and their linemate Matt Brandau is the guy I think is the best returning player in the country. They have a bunch of question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but so does everyone else including Cornell and Penn. I think Yale has the best group of attackmen in the Ivy through all three guys and they return two of their starting three close defenders and Paquette in net. Losing Chris Fake and Brian Tevlin to graduation and the transfer portal hurts, but they should be able to outscore teams when shit hits the fan. Again, I’m not saying they are going to win the regular season as well. I’m just thinking they will be the team to survive the tournament by season’s end.
MAAC
Like a moron, I thought St. Bonnies was still in the MAAC, but an angry man on Facebook made me aware of my mistake and told me to “be better” haha. So my pick for the MAAC tournament winner is MARIST. Lots of experience coming back including Jojo Pirreca, a snappy quick attackman that put up 53 points a season ago. I also liked what Manhattan was bringing back, but they lost Krebs (Marist also lost their starting keeper). I am going with Marist because Manhattan couldn’t win a faceoff to save their life last year and I’m not sure there is reason to assume it will be better “until it is”.
I know the least about the MAAC teams. St. Bonaventure won the regular season title with a 5-1 record, but lost in the tournament finals to Manhattan, a team they beat by 6 goals in the regular season.
Listing Dobson will certainly hurt the Bonnies, but they bring back three of their top four scorers, the bulk of their defense and a backup goalie from a season ago that earned a win and had a .563 save percentage.
Predicted Champ: St. Bonaventure. Whatever goalie fills in for Brett Dobson will be good enough to post a 56% or higher save percentage with the defense in front of him and the Bonnies will take the conference tournament and get a play-in game for the NCAA tournament.
PATRIOT
The Patriot has a clear favorite in my opinion and that team is Boston University. Like Delaware, BU’s returning attack unit is incredible. Vince D’Alto, Timmy Ley and Louis Perfetto put up 75, 74 and 65 points respectively. They all shot better than 30.9% on the season and they also have Roy Meyer (LSM) and Matt Garber (G) back to anchor their defense. Also back, almost all of their poles and Conor Calderone who won more faceoffs than he lost a season ago.
The teams behind them are all potentially killers as well. Army, Navy, Lehigh and Loyola are all in the hunt and as with every conference it will come down to “who’s playing better come tournament time”.
But I firmly believe that Boston University is going to be that time. They bring back the most experienced group of players in the conference. Four of their five losses were to Ivy League teams and they lost to Princeton twice. Army was the only “non Ivy” that was able to defeat Boston U. in 2022 and the Terriers got revenge by dropping Army in the Patriot League tournament finals 14-10.
Predicted Champ: Were you not listening? Boston University. I think they’ll win both the regular season and conference tournament titles.
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