OK, I won’t ramble and will dive right into my thoughts on the lines for college lacrosse this weekend (week one) and to be clear, the lines are crap this week. I’d like to think this is going to be an easy week, but maybe the joke is on me…
Coming In Hot…
Johns Hopkins @ Jacksonville
This one is coming in hot. It’s even as of right now in terms of moneyline at -115. When I took the moneyline on Jax it was -125 I believe in favor of Jax. Jax is a -1.5 favorite and that is too much heat. I think this ends up being a 1-goal game by the end.
So for this one, I took Jacksonville moneyline. If you think Jax is 2-goals better, then giddyup, but I don’t like the spread and I think at even for the moneyline, have at it and fly by the seat of your pants with the team you like because I do think this is a 50/50.
Utah @ Denver
This is another hot call. If you want to play it safe, sure, take Denver moneyline. But I actually think that Utah has a solid shot at winning this game so for me, Utah moneyline at +200 was a no brainer. This was another one that I don’t like the spread. Denver is a -2.5 favorite. If Utah does pull out a W, I don’t think it’s by more than 2 goals.
So I was a dumb shit and before I researched Denver, I took Denver moneyline within a day of the lines coming out. Now that I did my research, I just took out a 3-unit bet, moneyline for Utah as I think they have a really good chance to win this game. Stupid betting, but my first bet was blind. My second was a “let’s roll the dice and watch this game with some beers and getting hype”.
Pretty Solid…
Air Force @ Ohio State
I actually like Ohio State at -5.5 for this one. I think that Ohio State could potentially flirt with and maybe even kiss the top five this season depending on how the dominos fall. Air Force has Dodd and some others, but this is a pretty loaded Ohio State team all over the field. They have question marks at defensive midfield, but there is no question their attack and defense will be top notch and they should be good enough everywhere else to threaten the powers that be.
The question comes down to where is the easier money? The moneyline is easy money but pays you in pennies. I legit think Ohio State has a shot at rolling by 8+ in this one, so for me -5.5 is a no brainer. I took Ohio State to cover.
If they had a Jack Meyers prop bet for over/under points at 4.5, I’d just about take the 4.5. He’s going to have a very good season. Bet.
Lafayette @ Penn State
This game I like. Penn State was bad last year. I think they’re going to be better this year and on opening day I think they are 6 goals better than Lafayette, so I take Penn State at -5.5 for this one without feeling too sketched out about it.
Richmond @ Maryland
This one should probably be more of a “I’m not touching it”, but one thing I like about this game is that these teams have traditionally played to a reasonable score and Maryland has a lot of offensive question marks and may need some time to figure things out.
So for this one I like Richmond at +7.5 because I could totally see this game going in favor of Maryland by a score of 17-10. I think Maryland is for sure the better team, and maybe even by a wide margin, but Richmond is always tough even with losing talent and Maryland lost more points than any other team in the nation from a year ago.
I’m Not Touching These…
The Mount @ Navy
I’m not touching this one. The issue is I think the linemakers got it right. If someone put a gun to my head to take anything other than the moneyline, I’d take Navy to cover at -6.5. I think their midfield is going to be too much for The Mount and being superior from an athletic standpoint won’t hurt the Midshipmen either.
But this one is right in the area that I’m avoiding. Moneyline doesn’t pay anything. The spread is in the area where I think it’s 50/50 and I don’t like those odds. It’s too early to know: is this a Navy team that will just win games, or will they have an offense that can put up points in bunches? I’m leaning towards scoring enough goals to win games, so I’ll pass.
Bellarmine @ Duke
Another one I’m not touching. Moneyline pays nothing, Duke sitting at -10.5 is sitting right in that area where you have to ask, is Duke 11 goals better than Bellarmine? For sure. By the end of the game, will they be up by 11 goals? I’m not sure. Even if they go up by 14, they could call the dogs off, empty the bench and allow things to end up in the area of 10 and coach D is one of those guys that for the bulk of his career has chosen to not run up the score.
So I’m staying away from this one. In today’s college lacrosse climate you will start seeing teams beat teams by 12+ goals more and more. But in the first game of the season, even if Duke could cover, I don’t feel confident Danowski is going to allow it to happen.
Detroit Mercy @ VMI
I’ll pass. I’m tempted to take VMI at +1.5, but (a) NY doesn’t have this one for me and (b) who the hell knows what these teams are going to look like this year. The bottoms of D1 are the hardest to read when they take the field against each other. I’ll pass.
Lindewood @ Marquette
This one intrigues me because I think many would assume Lindewood will easily get waxed by Marquette. That is probably true. But is Marquette 12 goals better than a team that went 12-4 playing a D2 schedule? Probably. The fact I can’t say yes makes me want to avoid this one. Same thing as with Duke/Bellarmine… beating a team by 12 goals doesn’t happen often and I’m just not sure that Marquette does that to Lindewood on opening day. They probably will, but I’m staying away.
And as you’ve noticed, I’m avoiding over/unders this week as well because it’s week 1 and overs and unders are sketchy. I’ll pick a couple at the end of the show but for now, I’m focusing on spread and moneyline.
This game? Another pass for me.
Holy Cross @ Providence
Pass. Who knows? Again, gun to head, I’d take Providence to cover but neither team has impressed me as of late and anything can happen in week one.
Mercer @ Bucknell
Bucknell is the favorite at -5.5 which I think may be a goal too steep. I wouldn’t touch this one. I think if I were to take any bet on this game, I’d take the under. If someone put a gun to my head and said I had to take 2 bets on this game, I’d take Mercer to cover at +5.5.
Listen to the audio version…
Hop/Jax can obviously go either way.
